In the previous post, we reviewed the College-to-NFL Edge Rusher model and how predictive it was in finding truly elite edge rushers (>14.2% PRWR in the NFL). This is critical for evaluating college edge rushers as the ability to pressure the QB is a significant factor in winning NFL games.
To review, the model is below – we have 2 models: one that does not use RAS and one that uses RAS (RAS is relative athletic score). The model w/o RAS had a 3-to-1 odds of finding an elite NFL edge rusher while avoiding any bust or inferior player (<7.2% PRWR). Incorporating RAS, we eliminate any busts from our prediction while having a 92.5% predictive ability of finding an above average edge rusher (>9.3% PRWR) and 35% probability of finding an elite edge rusher.
So, using this model, how does this 2025 NFL Draft stack up? See below….
NFL PRWR % vs College-to-NFL Edge Rusher Model Predicted PRWR % (w/o using RAS) (all NFL Edge Rushers drafted since 2015 with >200 plays)
NFL PRWR % vs College-to-NFL Edge Rusher Model Predicted PRWR % (w/ RAS) (all NFL Edge Rushers drafted since 2015 with >200 plays)
The consensus is that this is a very, very deep draft for edge rushers and this model confirms that.
Now, we do not have any athletic testing on these prospects yet – the combine is a week away and I will do an updated article once we have that. However, just based on college production, there are 11 possibly elite edge rushers in this 2025 NFL Draft class. This rivals the 2017 NFL draft class which had 14 possibly elite edge rushers – Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Haason Reddick, Carl Lawson, among others. So, the depth of this class is obvious, but do we have any generational talents?
College-to-NFL Edge Rusher Model Predicted PRWR % (w/o RAS) by Draft Year
Since we don’t have any RAS data yet, it is difficult to tell, but based on college production alone, there are no “generational” talents – I am using >13.5% predicted PRWR based on my model (both Bosa brothers, Chase Young, Josh Allen, Trey Hendrickson, and Latu all had generational production scores – without RAS). There are no players in this draft that score that high (production-based only, no RAS).
However, in reviewing this year’s draft, there are 3 clear groups. We have 11 players how are clearly scoring >10.5% predicted PRWR (possibly elite), 5 players scoring >9.5% predicted PRWR (possibly average to above-average), and 9 players who are predicted to be average pass rushers, at best.
With 11 possibly elite edge rushers in this draft (before RAS), is it worth drafting one of these players in the 1st round, or should a team wait until the 2nd round and use their first pick on positions with less elite talent? That is a discussion every NFL team will be having, but I do believe there are currently 5 prospects that should be drafted high in the 1st round if your team is desperate for an elite edge rusher – Josaiah Stewart, Princely Umanmielen, Abdul Carter, Mike Green, and Donovan Ezeiruaku (note this is before RAS data). Those are my current can’t-miss prospects (before RAS).
College-to-NFL Edge Rusher Model Predicted PRWR % (w/o RAS) (2025 NFL Draft Prospects only)
Now, my model does go against the consensus in this context – Abdul Carter is not necessarily the best edge rusher in this class. He does score very high in this model (12.5%) but Josaiah Stewart and Princely Umanmielen score even higher while Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku score slightly below.
As we get the athletic testing, this may change – Carter may score very high athletically and Stewart/Princely score lower so that may move Carter up in the rankings of this model. But, currently, Carter is not the top prospect – Stewart is (and I think the film supports that, which I will be adding my own film reviews later).
So, this is an exciting NFL draft class for edge rushers – if you’re a fan of a team that needs edge rush help, it is coming….but you may not need to reach for a player in the 1st round, there will be plenty of talent available in the 2nd round.
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