We have a model that can provide a high hit rate for finding good-to-elite NFL WRs with an 88% chance of landing one. This model focuses on WRs who produce against zone coverages (and taking into account several other metrics).
Which 2025 NFL Draft prospects have been the best against zone?
College YPRR against Zone vs College YPRR against Man (last year in college)
In the previous article, we noted that WRs who post >3.75 YPRR against zone had a 68% chance of being a good-to-elite NFL WR based on this single statistic. Only 1 WR from this class meets that metric – Tre Harris (Ole Miss) (and that YPRR against man is just ridiculous). There are a couple of other WRs who just barely miss in Jaylin Noel and Donte Thornton Jr.
Now, Tre Harris only played 8 games this past year due to injury, but it was a great 8 games. And, he posted really good YPRR numbers last year as well, posting 3.4 YPRR against both zone and man. So, from a YPRR perspective, Tre Harris sticks out clearly.
But, if we look at Targeted Passer Rating, do we see something different?
College Targeted Passer Rating against Zone vs College Targeted Passer Rating against Man (last year in college)
Tre Harris still shows out, but we do see several other WRs posting good numbers – Travis Hunter, Xavier Restrepo, Donte Thornton Jr (albeit small sample), and Pat Bryant. Jaylin Noel produced a high rating against zone, but not against man (similar to the YPRR metric).
Now, my model takes into account multiple variables so let’s see how the current draft class stacks up based on their Predicted NFL YPRR.
Predicted NFL YPRR by Draft Year
The 2025 NFL draft class actually doesn’t look too bad. Tre Harris is posting an elite predicted NFL YPRR – it is just 8 games, and there is that injury concern, but it’s hard to ignore his production and how that translates to the NFL.
The next WR should be no surprise to anyone – Travis Hunter. He is positing similar predicted NFL YPRR as Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith, and Malik Nabers (and I think he is a blend of each of those WRs). Yet, he is a unicorn – a player who can play both sides of the ball, so although I would have him as my WR2, he would be higher on the draft board because of adding his ability to play CB (at least some of the time).
Based on the previous analysis, WRs who post >1.5 predicted NFL YPRR had an 88% chance of being good-to-elite NFL WRs. This draft class does have 10 total WRs who have >1.5 predicted NFL YPRR (in order) – Tre Harris, Travis Hunter, Jaylin Noel, Donte Thornton Jr, Kyle Williams, Xavier Restrepo, Keandre Lambert-Smith, Dante Wright, Matthew Golden, and Pat Bryant.
Now, will all of these WRs be elite WRs – no, of course not. This is where the scouting has to be done to filter this group further, especially when projecting how the WR will fit with each team’s offense. Yet, many of these WRs are currently projected in the mid rounds (or even late rounds). Only Hunter and Golden are consensus 1st round picks, so teams can have a high chance of finding good-to-elite WRs in the mid rounds this year.
Some WRs that are projected to be possible busts – Elic Ayomanor, Elijhah Badger, Isaiah Bond, Emeke Egbuka, Jayden Higgins, and Kobe Hudson. These players just did not produce on a per route basis – I would stay away from these players in the draft (and Ayomanor and Egbuka are projected 1st/2nd round picks).
So, I think this draft only has 2 truly elite WRs – Tre Harris and Travis Hunter, so that is why many draft experts think this is not a good draft for WRs. But, there can be some hidden gems – in particular, Noel, Williams, and Restrepo in the mid rounds.
Of course, every analytical model is not perfect, but as a fan, focus less on highlights or how a WR played against man – focus on how they produced against zone coverage because that is what they will see in the NFL.