Category: Uncategorized

We have a model that can provide a high hit rate for finding good-to-elite NFL WRs with an 88% chance of landing one. This model focuses on WRs who produce against zone coverages (and taking into account several other metrics). Which 2025 NFL Draft prospects have been the best against zone? College YPRR against Zone… Read more

In the previous post, we saw that, despite the casual fan’s obsession with it, athletic scores just do not predict how the production of an NFL wide receiver. Using PFF data, we can look at how a WR produces in college and determine how that translates to NFL WR production. The best metric to use… Read more

The most entertaining offseason tradition in the NFL is the NFL combine. At the combine, prospective draftees can showcase their athletic talents. GMs, coaches, scouts, media, and fans watch as players try to run the fastest 40 yard dash, bench press the most weight, jump the highest vertical, or leap to the longest broad jump.… Read more

In the previous post, we reviewed the College-to-NFL Edge Rusher model and how predictive it was in finding truly elite edge rushers (>14.2% PRWR in the NFL). This is critical for evaluating college edge rushers as the ability to pressure the QB is a significant factor in winning NFL games. To review, the model is… Read more

There is no argument that the most important position in NFL football is the QB and the ability to affect the QB’s play is paramount in the game. The average EPA per play for a QB drops by 0.3 points per play each time he is pressured and 1.9 points per play for each sack… Read more

As shown in the previous post, I have developed a prediction model based on college QB performance utilizing 68 different statistics to predict NFL QB performance (based on EPA per play) with an 86% accuracy. This model accurately predicted controversial draft picks such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, while also predicting busts, such… Read more

Since 2021, NFL teams have spent more than $400 million on 1st round QBs. Considering QB hit rate in the 1st round is just 46% then ~$220 million will have been wasted on QBs who won’t be franchise QBs. That is a lot of money. With that much money being invested (plus the scouting, coaching,… Read more