The most entertaining offseason tradition in the NFL is the NFL combine. At the combine, prospective draftees can showcase their athletic talents. GMs, coaches, scouts, media, and fans watch as players try to run the fastest 40 yard dash, bench press the most weight, jump the highest vertical, or leap to the longest broad jump. The combine isn’t just fun and games though as performance at the combine can affect a prospect’s draft spot significantly, so a lot of money is at stake (and pressure).
Athleticism is so important in the NFL (and football game, in general). In so many matchups, typically the more athletic player tends to win more than the less athletic player. We have seen how athletic testing is so important for positions such as edge rusher, LB/TE, and also OL. The combine numbers that those prospects can score will help significantly in predicting how that player will perform in the NFL.
However, there is one position on the field that athleticism doesn’t really matter – and it is one that you might not suspect.
Performance at the WR position in the NFL has the least correlation to athleticism than any other position (ok, not counting QB). If we look at a WR’s YPRR (yards per route run) as a metric for how productive a receiver is on a per route basis and compare that to the RAS score (relative athletic score) then you have the chart below:
NFL YPRR vs RAS (all NFL Wide Receivers drafted since 2018 with >200 routes ran)
As you can see from the chart above, there is very little correlation of NFL WR performance (measured by YPRR) to athleticism (based on RAS score). The R-squared is <0.01 and you see elite WRs, such as Puka Nacua, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, etc, with low RAS scores.
You also see WRs with very high RAS scores that just have not produced in the NFL, players like Myles Boykin, Jonathan Mingo (sorry Cowboys fans), Parris Campbell, etc.
So, the infatuation with combine numbers for WRs is fun, sure, but has almost no bearing on how they produce at the NFL level. WR production is more dependent on the route running skill against man, the ability to find soft spots in zone coverage, and the WR timing his route with the QB’s progressions.
So, next time a scout or draft expert starts rattling off athleticism numbers for WRs – just turn the channel or keep scrolling. It just doesn’t matter.
If athleticism doesn’t matter, then what does matter for predicting WR production in the NFL? That’s the next article – and you might be surprised on what statistic matters more for predicting NFL WR production.